Nintendo Switch 2: Thread 01

[MarioMark]

Easier guide here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUp9nyml_uQ

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=a3432810958020abJmltdHM9MTY3NzgwMTYwMCZpZ3VpZD0wOWM0OGM4OS1jYzc0LTZmNjktMDZmMi05Y2Q5Yzg3NDZiY2UmaW5zaWQ9NTIyMw&ptn=3&hsh=3&fclid=09c48c89-cc74-6f69-06f2-9cd9c8746bce&psq=resetera+switch+2&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cucmVzZXRlcmEuY29tL3RocmVhZHMvcmVwdXRhYmxlLWNoaW5lc2UtaGFyZHdhcmUtcHJvZHVjdGlvbi1sZWFrZXItYW5kLWZvcnVtLWdldHMtJUMyJUE4bmluamElQzIlQjRkJUMyJUE4LWJ5LW5pbnRlbmRvLWFzLXN3aXRjaC0yLXJ1bW9ycy1hcmlzZS42OTI2NjgvcGFnZS0y&ntb=1

The only reason this has traction is because the said leaker has apparently leaked several Switch related items in the past and has a fairly accurate track record. The latest leak is that late this year Nintendo will unveil the Switch 2 and it will likely launch early 2024.

The weight of credibility on this information though has been given added momentum as rumours of a new system are endlessly spinning out into the world of speculation, this time though Nintendo itself had very quickly moved to shut down the leak with the individual involved being permanently banned from posting on the Chinese forum and then Nintendo drafted in the lawyers to shut the forum down making things look all the more likely - because, again, it's 2023 and people don't understand how the internet works.

[wakka]

I think it was probably worth it to Nintendo to shut the leaker down now before more concrete information about the actual hardware becomes available, though. The extent of his leak seems to be 'Nintendo have got next gen hardware tests coming down the pike on the manufacturing side'. They'd probably been monitoring for a while and have now struck.

There does seem to be a process now for dealing with Chinese supply chain leakers, because Apple successfully silenced several a couple of years back who had previously been pretty prolific. I still follow one on Twitter. He now just posts pictures of his Apple Watch band collection and his dog. I'm guessing Nintendo have followed a similar path and it involves the Chinese government and scary legal threats.

The timing of this is going to be interesting. Switch was announced in October and launched the following March. But nuking Christmas sales for them wasn't a problem that time, since the WiiU was already on life support. This time, they've got a console that still sells well. That makes announcing either immediate side of Christmas a slightly tricky proposition.

I'm inclined to lean towards a Spring/Summer 2024 unveiling and a Q4 2024 launch.

[Neon Ignition]

If Switch 2 is revealed this year it begs the question of how Nintendo plans to shift the number of Switch 1's they've projected. I'm now finding myself wondering what the feasibility would be of them making something akin to a revised Switch Lite that carries a smaller price tag than the standard model, but replaces the existing Lite and standard models. This would still use a dock but would effectively extend the sales cycle of the Switch by making it an entry level device that sits alongside the Switch 2 which would cost a lot more. It only takes a glance at Switch games to realise there's actually little need for the extra power in most cases so they would be able to have Switch 2 be B/C with Switch 1 and then Switch 2 games would be marketed as device exclusives, essentially basing their whole model around how long cross gen lasts. Eventually they can then phase out the New Switch Lite for a Switch 2 Lite having migrated the userbase seamlessly across gens?

[wakka]

I think it's feasible. I think the risk of it is that you create a higher tier product with limited appeal, much like the One X and PS4 Pro, and the majority of your sales continue to be of the cheaper edition.

You've basically just cut your own margins at that point, since it's unlikely that the Switch 2 will retail for substantially more than the Switch OLED (£399 at most I'd estimate).

I honestly think it's likelier that we see a Switch 2 announcement next year, though. The fact that a factory leaker knows it's coming probably doesn't indicate imminent mass production but that it's entering the engineering validation testing stage, where they building a few prototypes for testing and tweaking (proviso: everything I know about this is just stuff I've read online in the past in relation to leaks for other products, I'm not a supply chain pro).

[Neon Ignition]

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[nonny]

Definitely got to be coming next year right ... right...?

[wakka]

Yeah I think Q4 2024 looks likelier than ever.

[dataDave]

That depends if their software sales slow down as well. You don’t really want to rock the boat that’s holding 140M+ potential buyers of your full-priced software.

Backwards compatibility with performance boosts would be nice to have, and wouldn’t disturb anything.

[wakka]

Agreed - that was a real tactical error with the WiiU. They announced it eighteen months before it came out, effectively Osbourne Effecting themselves. Wii hardware and software sales, which had previously been healthy if naturally diminishing, promptly went through the floor.

I would guess that we'll see a much smaller gap between the announcement and release of the new machine this time.

[briareos_kerensky]

That depends if their software sales slow down as well. You don’t really want to rock the boat that’s holding 140M+ potential buyers of your full-priced software.

Backwards compatibility with performance boosts would be nice to have, and wouldn’t disturb anything.

I really want to see how the backwards compatibility thing works out. It's not confirmed, but apparently the only way to have 100% compatibility with all Switch titles is to use a Maxwell GPU, because all games include a pre-compiled driver. Without that, games have to be re-compiled.

[Neon Ignition]

Honestly, I know shareholders get the jitters at absolutely anything but I'd like them to rule out 2024/2025 financial year too. There's literally no real reason to launch one

[Junko]

But haven’t they put all their eggs in the Zelda basket ? Sure there will be a jump in hardware sales but doubtfully that will be sustainable. Other than Metroid if it even comes out on the current switch are there any other big titles to entice new customers?

[wakka]

None that have been announced. There will be more first party games in production that haven't been announced yet, but anything on the scale of Zelda 2 is exceedingly unlikely.

More GameCube remasters seems like plausible fan-pleasing filler. Next Level Games (who did the last couple of Luigi's Mansions) are rumoured to be working on an F-Zero GX remaster for release later this year.

[Nu-Eclipse]

More GameCube remasters seems like plausible fan-pleasing filler. Next Level Games (who did the last couple of Luigi's Mansions) are rumoured to be working on an F-Zero GX remaster for release later this year.

Do you see GC remasters happening? Would it not be cheaper and less resource-taxing for Nintendo to just give Switch users what they've wanted for ages and add GC games to the Switch Online service instead?